Corona expected credit losses

“The Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model in IFRS 9 requires issuers to measure expected losses and consider forward-looking information, by reflecting “an unbiased and probability-weighted amount that is determined by evaluating a range of possible outcomes” and taking into account “reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort at that date about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions” [IFRS 9, paragraph 5.5.17].

Issuers should assess the extent to which, amongst other facts, the high degree of uncertainty and any sudden changes in the short-term economic outlook are expected to result in impacts over the entire expected life of the financial instrument. Such considerations are integral to the functioning of the ECL model under IFRS 9 and ESMA highlights that the Standard does not envisage any automatism as to how such contextual factors should impact on the loan loss provisioning.

In particular, given the scarcity of available and reliable information in the current context,  issuers  will  face  problems  in generating  reasonable  and  supportable  short-term economic forecasts. In this context,ESMA highlights the recent ECB supervisory measures taken in reaction to the coronavirus in this area (i.e. the recommendation that, given the current state of uncertainty linked  to  the  COVID-19  outbreak,  within  the  framework  provided  by IFRS, issuers give  a greater  weight  to  long-term  stable  outlook  as  evidenced  by  past  experience  and  take  into account the relief measures granted by public authorities –such as payment moratoria).

Finally,  in  ESMA’s  view,  when  making  forecasts,  issuers  should  consider  the  nature  of  this economic shock (i.e. whether the COVID-19 effect is expected to be temporary) and the impact that the economic support and relief measures (including debt moratoria) will have on the credit risk  over  the  expected  life  of the  instruments,  which  include,  depending  on  the  instruments’ maturities, longer-term estimates.”